01.01.70

I am one of those demented people who buys deluge insurance when the sun is shining and sun tan lotion by the gallon from Costco in the dead of winter. I am such an inveterate compact hunter that I even buy Christmas ornaments during the January sales when retailers are unloading inventories for pennies on the dollar.

It is such instincts that whirl me to take a look at the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), a measure of the implied volatility of the S&P 500 cows index, which has been in a death spiral since it peaked nearly three years ago at the $80 unvarying. You may know of this from the talking heads and beginners who call this the “Fear Pointer”.

For those of you who have a PhD in higher mathematics from MIT, the (VIX) is a weighted blend of prices for a sort of options on the S&P 500 index. The formula uses a kernel-smoothed estimator that takes as inputs the fashionable market prices for all out-of-the-money calls and puts for the front month and patronize month expirations. The (VIX) is the square root of the par variance swap classification for a 30 day term initiated today. To get into the pricing of the individual options, please go look up your expert dandy and ever useful Black-Scholes equation.

Source: OilPrice.com

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